From: Subject: Climate Change and the Implications for Plant Protection Symposium Date: Wed, 6 Jan 2010 15:11:13 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: file://C:\Documents and Settings\agre276\Local Settings\Temporary Internet Files\OLK181\Climate Change Newsletter Dec 09 (2).html X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.5512 =EF=BB=BF Climate Change = and the Implications for Plant Protection Symposium

In This Issue

About the Symposium

Speaker Highlight - Francis Zwiers

Scenario Modeling

Anthropogenic Climate Change

About the City of Guelph...

Call for Posters

Contact Us

City of Guelph

Located in southwestern = Ontario, the City of Guelph is ranked = among the=20 top ten places in Canada to live. Guelph is located one hour = west of=20 Toronto, the capital of Ontario and just east of=20 Kitchener-Waterloo.

The University of Guelph is = located=20 in the City of Guelph augmenting the City=E2=80=99s = population of 118,000=20 residents with an additional 18,000 undergraduate and = graduate=20 students. The University of Guelph is ranked as one of = Canada's top=20 comprehensive universities because of our commitment to = student=20 learning and innovative research.

Call for Posters

The Ontario Agricultural College invites proposals for a = poster=20 session to be held during the Symposium on Tuesday, May 25,=20 2010.

Poster presentations offer researchers a unique = opportunity to present current research in a graphical = format.=20 Symposium participants from a wide range of countries and = areas of=20 expertise will have the opportunity to review and discuss = your=20 research.

See the website for submission = guidelines: http://www.cropprote= ction.open.uoguelph.ca/

Questions?

Please contact us:
Office of Open = Learning
Room 160=20 Johnston Hall
University of Guelph
Guelph Ontario N1G=20 2W1
CANADA
ph - 519-767-5000 mailto:info@open.uoguelph.ca

Registration Reminder!

Early=20 Bird Deadline: February 1, 2010



Climate Change = Committee:

The School of Environmental = Sciences

December, 2009

Climate Change and the Implications for Plant = Protection Symposium

University of Guelph, = Guelph=20 Ontario
May 25, 26 and 27, 2010

http://www.cropprote= ction.open.uoguelph.ca/

About the Symposium

The symposium will explore

The Science, The = Impacts and The=20 Options

An international roster of = speakers=20 specializing in global climate change will share their = current=20 understanding and research in the Background and Theory,=20 Applications and Adaptations and the implications for plant=20 protection

Speaker Highlight - Francis Zwiers

Dr. Zwiers is an internationally recognized expert in the = fields=20 of climate change detection and attribution, the analysis of = climate=20 variability and extremes, and in climate modelling and = analysis. Dr.=20 Zwiers has recently been elected to the Bureau of the=20 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an = organization=20 with which he has been involved since its inception, = including as a=20 Coordinating Lead Author of the chapter = =E2=80=9CUnderstanding and=20 Attributing Climate Change=E2=80=9D in the most recent IPCC = Assessment=20 Report. Dr. Zwiers served, for a decade, as Chief of the = Canadian=20 Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, and since 2006, = Dr.=20 Zwiers has been the Director of the Climate=20 Research Division within Environment Canada.

Dr. Zwiers will discuss =E2=80=9CProjecting Future = Climate=E2=80=9D at the=20 Climate Change Symposium.


Scenario Modeling: =E2=80=98Predicting=E2=80=99 = Future Greenhouse Gas=20 Emissions

Allison M. Thomson is a Research Scientist at the Joint Global = Change Research=20 Institute, a partnership of the Pacific Northwest = National=20 Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Maryland, College = Park. Her=20 primary research interests are in the field of climate = change and=20 agriculture, using modeling to understand the impacts of = global=20 change on agricultural, soil and water resources.

For the past 10 years, Ms. Thomson has worked on = agriculture from=20 the perspective of climate change impacts and applying = process-level=20 simulation models over various regions of the world. The = research=20 has transitioned to working on agriculture and land use = issues=20 within the integrated Global Change Assessment Model GCAM, = aka=20 MiniCAM. In the past year, she has also led the GCAM = contribution to=20 a scenarios project called the Representative Concentration = Pathways=20 (RCP). These RCPs are four future scenarios by four = different=20 modeling groups that form the core set of scenarios for the = climate=20 modeling community to use in simulations for the next=20 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment=20 report.

Ms. Thomson will describe how these scenarios are = developed, how=20 they are used in climate models, as well as how integrated=20 assessment models currently treat agricultural systems.=20


Anthropogenic Climate Change Affects Physical and = Biological Systems

Anthropogenic climate change has had a significant impact = on=20 physical and biological systems since at least the 1970s, = says Dr.=20 Cynthia Rosenzweig. In a 2008 Nature publication Dr. = Rosenzweig and=20 colleagues discuss a =E2=80=9Cjoint attribution = study=E2=80=9D that was conducted=20 across multiple physical and biological systems at both a = global and=20 continental scale. A =E2=80=9Cjoint attribution = study=E2=80=9D attempts to combine=20 two types of attributions =E2=80=93 in this case, the = attribution of=20 anthropogenic causes to regional climate change was combined = with=20 the attribution of climate change to observed changes in = physical=20 and biological systems. This is a difficult process because = the=20 combination of these two types of attribution results in = lower=20 statistical confidence. Despite these challenges, this study = found=20 that most of the observed system changes in Europe and North = America=20 have been in the direction expected with warming = temperatures and=20 that these temperature increases cannot be explained by = natural=20 climate variations alone.

Other possible drivers of environmental change were also=20 considered including land-use change, management practices,=20 pollution and human demography shifts. However it was found = that=20 very few documented system changes were likely to have been = caused=20 by a driving force other than climate change. Most of the = system=20 changes were found in the cryosphere and in terrestrial = biological=20 systems. Physical system changes include glacier wastage and = earlier=20 spring peak of river discharge. Changes in biological = systems=20 include plant effects like earlier blooming and leaf = unfolding and=20 effects to marine and freshwater biological systems like = changes in=20 migration and community composition in algae, plankton and = fish.

The study concludes that while anthropogenic climate = change is=20 having a significant impact on physical and biological = systems=20 globally and in Europe, North America and Asia, = documentation of=20 changes in these systems in tropical and subtropical regions = is=20 still sparse. Therefore in order to document the impacts of=20 anthropogenic climate change on physical and biological = systems in=20 regions where many developing countries are located, = improved=20 observation networks are urgently needed.

Read=20 more...=20

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